Just 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.
He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.
How was your night?
I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.
You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.
How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?
He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.
He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability
There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?
It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously backed the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.
A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?
Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.
You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?
Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he does because then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.
The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.
He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.
Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?
I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.
Prior to the vote we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?
Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.
Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?
Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.
But I think that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.
