The Unsuccessful Attempt to Stage Cop31 Looks Like a Mess – But It Could Actually Be the Best Result Achievable

Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.