Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.
After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.
“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”
However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.
On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.
The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.
It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.
“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.
