Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.