Foreign Office Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.